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Question not if, but when, quake will occur, prof says
Tomi Parrish
Issue date: 4/22/08 Section: Campus News
After the earth shook early Friday morning, April 18, UTM was abuzz with personal stories of who felt the 5.2-magnitude earthquake centered in rural southern Illinois.
Aftershocks from the quake occurred during the day Friday and during the weekend, including a 4.0-magnitude aftershock, also centered in Illinois, that was recorded at 12:38 a.m. Monday, April 21. The Illinois quake and aftershocks occurred in the Wabash Valley fault system, a northern branch off of the New Madric Seismic Zone, which also includes the New Madrid fault system near Martin.
Meanwhile, students and faculty continue to talk about "The Big One," the allegedly "overdue" large earthquake expected to occur somewhere along the New Madrid fault system.
"The question is not if we will get a large quake, but when it will occur," said Dr. Michael Gibson, a UTM professor of Geology. "Look at how quickly the quake in Illinois was felt here and how many people felt it. That ought to be an indicator of what the potential is if we have a similar or larger quake on the New Madrid fault."
Gibson also said the term "overdue" is not particularly accurate.
"We can document about five really big quakes that have occurred on the New Madrid fault line in the past 1,500 years," he said. "When you run statistics on those numbers, then the average becomes about one large quake happening every 500 years. Averages, though, are extremely misleading - three of those five quakes occurred in a two-month period in December 1811 and January 1812 (forming Reelfoot Lake).
"When you look at other indicators, however, we have an 80 percent to 90 percent chance of experiencing a 6.0 or higher quake in the next 50 years," Gibson said. "So we're not so much overdue, but the probability of a large quake occurring near here is high."
Gibson added that students should be prepared in the event of a major quake.
"First off, be ready to be totally on your own for about two weeks, especially in terms of food, water and medical supplies," he said. "Our infrastructure is such that it will be difficult for emergency management officials to get here quickly. Keep a pair of shoes next to your bed and keep your glasses or medicines handy. Once the quake hits, you'll have about 30 seconds to take cover.
Aftershocks from the quake occurred during the day Friday and during the weekend, including a 4.0-magnitude aftershock, also centered in Illinois, that was recorded at 12:38 a.m. Monday, April 21. The Illinois quake and aftershocks occurred in the Wabash Valley fault system, a northern branch off of the New Madric Seismic Zone, which also includes the New Madrid fault system near Martin.
Meanwhile, students and faculty continue to talk about "The Big One," the allegedly "overdue" large earthquake expected to occur somewhere along the New Madrid fault system.
"The question is not if we will get a large quake, but when it will occur," said Dr. Michael Gibson, a UTM professor of Geology. "Look at how quickly the quake in Illinois was felt here and how many people felt it. That ought to be an indicator of what the potential is if we have a similar or larger quake on the New Madrid fault."
Gibson also said the term "overdue" is not particularly accurate.
"We can document about five really big quakes that have occurred on the New Madrid fault line in the past 1,500 years," he said. "When you run statistics on those numbers, then the average becomes about one large quake happening every 500 years. Averages, though, are extremely misleading - three of those five quakes occurred in a two-month period in December 1811 and January 1812 (forming Reelfoot Lake).
"When you look at other indicators, however, we have an 80 percent to 90 percent chance of experiencing a 6.0 or higher quake in the next 50 years," Gibson said. "So we're not so much overdue, but the probability of a large quake occurring near here is high."
Gibson added that students should be prepared in the event of a major quake.
"First off, be ready to be totally on your own for about two weeks, especially in terms of food, water and medical supplies," he said. "Our infrastructure is such that it will be difficult for emergency management officials to get here quickly. Keep a pair of shoes next to your bed and keep your glasses or medicines handy. Once the quake hits, you'll have about 30 seconds to take cover.
Viewing Comments 1 - 3 of 3
melisa manuel
posted 4/24/08 @ 1:44 PM CST
I have been living in this area on and off for almost 20 years. Someone perdicted a great quake years ago. The media only scared the community. Yet, it is a good thing. (Continued…)
Matt Cook
posted 4/25/08 @ 11:45 AM CST
Melisa,
Thanks for your comment. While we at The Pacer never intend to scare the community with our reporting, we do want to inform our readership about the the goings on in the West Tennessee area. (Continued…)
Michael Gibson
posted 4/27/08 @ 5:45 PM CST
Melissa,
You are correct about the prediction from 1990 (we refer to this as the "Iben Browning Scare". Browning was a meteorologist (not a geologist) who created a national stir when he incorrectly (and erroneously) forcast an earthquake of better than 6 to occur on the New Madrid fault in December of that year. (Continued…)
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